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Markets US February payrolls and Chair Powell’s after-European-close speech wrap up a hectic week. The former showed US employment growing by 151k, more or less in line with the expected 160k. January was revised down a bit by 18k. The goods sector added 34k, services 106k, led by the health & social sector (63k) and […]

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February CPI Preview: The Tariff Winds Start to Blow

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02/08/2024

AUDUSD Declines to Fresh 2-month Low

AUDUSD extends retreat to its lowest since May 1 Oscillators are flagging oversold conditions AUDUSD has been in a steady retreat since July 11, violating both its 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). Although the pair posted a fresh two-month low on Wednesday, the risk of a bounce to the upside has increased given that the […]
27/01/2024

Will Fed Push Back Against Imminent Rate Cuts?

Investors scale back bets of a March Fed rate cut US economic data since December point to improvement Focus turns to Fed meeting for clearer guidance on interest rates Decision on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT, press conference at 19:30 To cut in March or not to cut? There has been a notable repricing regarding the […]
25/09/2024

Soft-Landing, or No Soft-Landing, That is the Question: Part V

Part V: The FOMC, Blue Chip or the New Framework: Predicting the Fed Funds Rate Summary This installment presents a new framework to predict the level of the fed funds rate two quarters out. We compare our framework’s fed funds forecast with the FOMC and Blue Chip forecasts to decide who is more accurate at […]