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An increasing probability of stagflation risk in the US may see further narrowing of the 2-year sovereign yield premium spread between US Treasuries and JGBs. CAD/JPY is the second worst-performing major yen crosses in the past three months. CAD/JPY may see another round of impulsive down move sequence with the following medium-term supports coming in […]

The post CAD/JPY Outlook: Deterioration in US Growth and Tariff Risk May Spark Another Round of Yen Strength appeared first on Action Forex.

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By Keeping Threat of Even Higher Tariff Rates Alive, We Enter a Prolonged Period of Uncertainty

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04/12/2023

Brent “Does Not Believe” OPEC+

Brent oil prices fell to 78.30 USD per barrel on Monday. Despite OPEC+ decisions at the November meeting, oil prices are falling. The issue is that the actual parameters of OPEC+ quotas turned out to be lower than investors expected. This does not cancel out the Cartel’s powerful support on prices. However, the market cannot […]
07/12/2024

Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: The Song Remains the Same

Summary United States: The Song Remains the Same Incoming economic data continue to illuminate pockets of stress in the U.S. economy. The unwinding of strikes and hurricane effects lifted nonfarm payrolls by 227K in November; however, job gains remain highly concentrated by industry. Openings also continue to trend lower through the month volatility. Meanwhile, tariff-related […]
13/09/2024

Fed Preview: Dovish 25bp

We expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25bp in the next week’s meeting. Markets price in around 40% probability of a larger 50bp move. We do not expect changes to the pace of QT despite the Fed now initiating rate cuts. We expect the updated dots to signal a total of 3x25bp cuts […]