Category: Analysis

US and China agree to lower tariffs for 90 days as tensions take toll. But what are the prospects for a permanent deal? Markets are unsure if this is a true turning point. Boiling point The trade war between the United States and the rest of the world reached a boiling point in April after…

This week has been dominated by risk-on sentiment in markets following the positive outcome of the US and China trade negotiations during the weekend in Geneva. The cuts to tariff rates were larger than we and consensus had anticipated as the US announced a 115-percentage point reduction of the previous tariff rate from 145% to 30%.…

The New Zealand dollar is in positive territory on Friday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5906, up 0.54% on the day. New Zealand inflation expectations rise New Zealand’s two-year inflation expectations climbed to 2.29% in the second quarter, up from 2.06% in Q1, its highest level since last May. The survey also…

The Japanese yen is steady on Friday, after gaining 2% over the past three days. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 145.52, down 0.09% on the day. Japan’s economy shrinks for first time in a year Japan’s GDP report was a major disappointment, as the economy contracted for the first time in a…

Key takeaways USD/JPY rebounded sharply from 140.00 to 148.65 but quickly reversed, showing signs of a failed bullish breakout amid profit-taking and technical resistance. The Bank of Japan held rates steady and cut its growth forecast, reinforcing expectations of a slower pace of policy normalization in 2025. US-Japan 10Y and 2Y yield spreads continue to…

On 7 May, a major upgrade to the Ethereum network — known as Pectra — was successfully implemented. It significantly enhanced the network’s scalability and efficiency, while also improving conditions for ETH stakers. This triggered a surge in demand for Ethereum, and the ETH/USD rate rose confidently from the $1,800 area to current levels around…

Asian Session Market Wrap A mixed Asian session for stocks as US Futures struggled after the S&P 500 finished with gains of 0.4% on Thursday. It appears early week optimism around the US-China trade deal may be fading. Will potential trade deal announcements reignite risk appetite? For now though, it appears concerns continue to linger…

The EUR/USD pair remained steady near 1.1196 on Friday, closing the week with little movement. Key drivers influencing EUR/USD Earlier in the week, the US dollar strengthened as the US-China trade dispute showed signs of easing. However, this optimism was short-lived due to disappointing economic data. The greenback initially rose by around 1% after Washington…

Markets The new leg in the ‘reflation rebound’ as triggered by a promising outcome in US-Sino trade talks last weekend ran into resistance. US yields yesterday were closing in on some kind of a technical wall (2-yr 4.05/10% area, 10-y 4.55/60% area, 30-y key 5.0% barrier). Money markets had scaled back expectations on the EoY…

Market sentiment remained tilted toward the upside across the US and European markets yesterday. In Europe, UK growth and eurozone industrial production surprised to the upside, boosting bulls who see the European economies benefiting from lower energy prices and relatively higher currencies to deal with their inflation battle. Combined with government spending prospects, growth in…