Category: Analysis

Week in Review: Optimism Begins to Fade as Consumer Sentiment Deteriorates Wall Street’s main indexes were set to end the week on a high note, thanks to a temporary truce in the U.S.-China trade war. The S&P 500 was on track for its fifth straight daily gain, with all three major indexes showing weekly growth.…

Canadian Highlights The Federal government is foregoing its usual spring Budget, but is pushing forward with election promises. The Ontario government expects to run a deeper FY 2025/26 deficit as economic relief clashes with a softening revenue outlook. Canada’s housing market remained subdued in April as weak consumer confidence weighs on sales activity. Inflation updates…

Summary United States: Sentiment Is Cratering but Hard Data Signal Only a Stalling The 90-day pause with China cheered financial markets, but economic data showed early indications of the economic impact of tariffs. Retail sales held up OK and industrial production was flat, but small business confidence optimism faded. Consumer sentiment plunged to the second…

April’s inflation reading for Canada on Tuesday will be distorted again by tax changes with the removal of the consumer carbon tax on energy products at the start of the month. This builds upon previous distortions caused by the federal GST tax break between December 2024 and February 2025. We expect (after-tax) price growth in…

Strong dollar awaits Fed speakers and PMIs. RBA to cut by 25bps, focus to fall on forward guidance. Sticky UK inflation could mean only one more BoE rate cut. Eurozone PMIs, Canada’s and Japan’s CPI numbers also on tap. US-China deal boosts investors’ appetite Risk sentiment improved significantly this week, while the dollar strengthened, after…

Key insights from the week that was. In Australia, Westpac-MI Consumer Sentiment rose 2.2% to 92.1% in May, representing a partial rebound from a subdued result in April that partly captured President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’. There have been many developments on the global trade front since – especially the latest de-escalation between the US and…

Markets “Time to go back home”. US President Trump wrapped up his road trip through the Middle-East, sealing substantial business and defense contracts with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Those agreements cover slightly over €1tn with (Qatari) plans to significantly increase them further. The investment deals helped lift spirits on (US) equity…

US and China agree to lower tariffs for 90 days as tensions take toll. But what are the prospects for a permanent deal? Markets are unsure if this is a true turning point. Boiling point The trade war between the United States and the rest of the world reached a boiling point in April after…

This week has been dominated by risk-on sentiment in markets following the positive outcome of the US and China trade negotiations during the weekend in Geneva. The cuts to tariff rates were larger than we and consensus had anticipated as the US announced a 115-percentage point reduction of the previous tariff rate from 145% to 30%.…

The New Zealand dollar is in positive territory on Friday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5906, up 0.54% on the day. New Zealand inflation expectations rise New Zealand’s two-year inflation expectations climbed to 2.29% in the second quarter, up from 2.06% in Q1, its highest level since last May. The survey also…