Category: Analysis

The Australian dollar has posted sharp losses on Tuesday, following the Reserve Bank’s decision to lower interest rates. Early in the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6395, down 0.95% on the day. RBA lowers rates to 3.85% The Reserve Bank of Australia has lowered its cash rate from 4.15% to 3.85%. The decision…

Markets All eyes were on Japan. A flopped 20-yr bond auction pushed long-term Japanese bond yields through the roof and immediately raised the stakes for next week’s 40-yr sale. Japan’s fiscal position is a very weak one with its prime minister yesterday calling it even worse than Greece’s. Its huge debt pile is already around…

Headline CPI inflation for April came in at 1.7% year-on-year (y/y), down from 2.3% y/y in March but above expectations for a 1.6% y/y print. The deceleration was due to gasoline prices tumbling 18.1% y/y as the consumer carbon price was removed. Also notable was the bounce-back in travel tour prices, which rose 6.7% y/y…

Asian Session Market Wrap The MSCI Asia Pacific index rose by 0.4% after the S&P 500 nearly entered a bull market on Monday. Hong Kong stocks went up by 1.3%, with Contemporary Amperex Technology surging up to 18% on its first trading day. Markets shrugged off a Moody’s downgrade with risk assets largely continuing their…

The EUR/USD pair climbed to 1.1243 on Tuesday, marking another attempt to break free from the narrow trading range it has occupied for over a week. This latest upward movement could prove more decisive than previous efforts. Key drivers affecting EUR/USD The US dollar came under sustained pressure in the previous session, driven by growing…

Today, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to cut the interest rate from 4.10% to 3.85%, continuing its easing policy after a previous cut from 4.35% in February. According to Reuters, the RBA today cited: → progress made in bringing inflation under control; → economic risks linked to the ongoing global trade war. Although…

GBPUSD increases odds of bullish continuation. A break above 1.3440 could hand over control to the bulls. GBPUSD has broken above a bearish channel, as Moody’s credit downgrade of the US economy and improving EU-UK trade relations have brought bullish momentum into play. A close above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA), along with a…

RBA cuts cash rate by 25bps as expected, policy still restrictive. Inflation now comfortably in the 2–3% target range with balanced risks. As we expected and the market was pricing, the RBA cut the cash rate target by 25bps at its May Monetary Policy Board meeting. This brings the cash rate target to 3.85%, which…

Gold (XAU/USD) has staged an impressive positive performance of 19% in the first quarter of 2025, which even outperformed other cross asset classes, such as the US S&P 500 (-4.6%), US Dollar Index (-4%), and Bitcoin/USD (-11.7%) over the same period. Gold (XAU/USD) rose 19% in Q1 2025, outperforming major asset classes like the S&P…

Markets The 30-yr bond yield at some point yesterday surged more than 13 bps, including last Friday’s late-session move, to 5.03%. Trump’s Big Beautiful but costly Bill getting shaped in the House only proved Moody’s point for its AAA-rating downgrade and added fuel to the fire. But the Treasury sell-off lured dip buyers into the…