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Markets US markets are closed for Thanksgiving so the focus turned to Europe instead. Inflation prints were due in Belgium, Spain and Germany ahead of tomorrow’s EMU figure. Spanish CPI flatlined month on month in November but accelerated in yearly terms to 2.4% due to base effects. Core inflation in the country ticked lower, from […]

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21/12/2023

After BoJ Decision, Yen Traders Turn to CPIs and Summary of Opinions

BoJ keeps policy ultra-loose, does not hint at change Friday’s data may reveal slowdown in inflation Wage negotiations key for exiting negative rates Next week’s Summary of Opinions also in focus Yen traders turn attention to national CPI numbers On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan decided unanimously to keep interest rates untouched at -0.1% and […]
14/08/2024

Soft-Landing, or No Soft-Landing, That Is the Question: Part II

Part II: Quantifying Episodes of Soft-Landing, Stagflation and Recessions Summary In the second part of the series, we quantify episodes of soft-landings, stagflation and recessions during the post-1950 period. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to present a framework to quantify periods of soft-landing for the U.S. economy. Our work estimates […]
04/11/2024

US NFP Surprise to the Downside as Election Looms

In focus this week Today, in the euro area, we receive the Sentix investor confidence indicator, providing the first assessment of sentiment in November. Focus is also on the final manufacturing PMI data for October. On Tuesday, the US election takes place and is the major highlight of the week. Donald Trump is the small […]